Higher Oil Prices From Trump’s Iran War Risk Could Derail the AI Boom | WTO

A World Trade Organization report says artificial intelligence is becoming a major driver of global trade, but that boom is also increasingly tied to energy costs. That link matters more after oil markets jolted higher in early March 2026 as the Trump administration’s war with Iran disrupted shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, lifting crude benchmarks and reviving inflation fears that can hit data-center economics, power markets and capital spending. The result is a macro risk to AI that is no longer theoretical.

WTO data show AI-related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecom equipment drove nearly half of global merchandise trade expansion in the first half of 2025, rising 20% year over year in value terms, while the WTO lifted its 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% from 0.9% and cut its 2026 forecast to 0.5% from 1.8%. The same WTO material also says data centers already consume 1.5% of global electricity, underscoring how dependent the AI buildout is on affordable energy and grid investment. Those figures come from WTO publications released in September and October 2025.

Why March 2026 Oil Volatility Matters for AI Costs

S&P Global reported on March 2, 2026 that crude vessel traffic remained nearly halted in the Strait of Hormuz and noted that around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil moves through that chokepoint. On the same day, NYMEX April crude settled $4.21 higher at $71.23 a barrel after President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could last four to five weeks. Allianz Research then estimated on March 3 that oil had spiked to about $82 a barrel, up 13% after markets opened, with more than 200 oil and LNG vessels anchoring outside Hormuz because of war-risk insurance and operational pauses.

For AI, the transmission channel is indirect but measurable. Oil is not the dominant fuel for most data centers, which run on grid electricity, yet an oil shock can still raise system-wide energy costs through fuel substitution, shipping costs, diesel backup generation, construction inputs, inflation expectations and financing conditions. Allianz said a prolonged conflict with significant Hormuz disruption could push oil to $100 a barrel, while a tail-risk scenario involving broader regional energy infrastructure attacks could send Brent above $130 before easing later in 2026. It also said a 10% rise in oil prices tends to add about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to short-term inflation in the U.S. and Europe.

1.5% of Global Electricity Shows the Scale of AI’s Energy Dependence

The WTO’s 2025 World Trade Report makes the core point plainly: AI development requires “substantial investments” in energy and digital infrastructure, and data centers already consume 1.5% of global electricity. The International Energy Agency’s 2025 electricity update adds more detail for the U.S., saying data centers consumed around 180 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024 and that U.S. data-center demand is expected to keep rising through 2030, with consumption projected to increase by about 240 TWh relative to 2024 levels.

Private-sector estimates point in the same direction. Goldman Sachs Research says global power demand from data centers is forecast to rise 50% by 2027 and as much as 165% by 2030 from 2023 levels. That does not prove the AI boom will stall, but it does show why higher energy prices matter more now than they did before generative AI became a capital-spending race among hyperscalers, chipmakers and utilities.

How $100 Oil Could Hit Servers, Semiconductors and Financing

The WTO’s trade data show the AI boom is not just about software. It runs through a physical supply chain that includes semiconductors, servers, telecom gear, specialty gases, raw silicon and logistics. If oil stays elevated, transport and manufacturing costs can rise across that chain. WTO economists already warned in October 2025 that rising input prices and slower trade shipments suggested inflation could increase as inventories shrink in tariff-affected sectors.

The financing side may be even more important. Allianz said higher oil prices can keep inflation pressure alive and delay rate cuts, leaving equities and credit more vulnerable if energy costs stay high and growth slows. That matters because AI infrastructure is unusually capital intensive. Large data-center campuses require land, transformers, cooling systems, backup power, networking gear and long-term power contracts before they generate revenue. If the cost of capital stays elevated, some marginal projects can be delayed even if demand for AI compute remains strong. This is an inference based on the WTO’s energy-intensity data and Allianz’s inflation-and-rates scenario work, not a direct WTO forecast that the AI boom will end.

What the WTO Actually Says About the AI Boom

The WTO does not say the AI boom is already over. Its position is more precise. The organization says AI is lifting trade, that AI-related goods are a fast-growing part of global commerce, and that open, predictable trade policies and infrastructure investment are needed if those gains are to spread broadly. It also says policy support for renewable energy is uneven, with high-income economies accounting for 69% of global renewable-energy policies while low-income economies represent 1.5%, a gap that could widen inequalities in AI capacity.

That framing matters for the headline risk around oil. The WTO’s own evidence suggests AI growth depends on stable trade flows, affordable power and sustained infrastructure spending. A war-driven oil shock threatens all three at once. It raises transport and input costs, complicates inflation and rate expectations, and makes energy security a bigger constraint on where new AI capacity can be built.