I a sense of mutual exclusivity, the two most important variables affecting the future of NEAR can be seen to be its ability to maintain its current level of resistance at Stall and its ability to command an inward turn. The decision on which variable is more important can only be made when taking into account NEAR’s current position within the cycle. We know that as long as NEAR maintains its resistance, it will only go upwards. But when we take a look at the trend in NEAR’s behaviour, we see that it has been unwilling or unable to maintain this resistance for any length of time, always opting for an inward turn. It seems, then, as if maintaining resistance is not as important to NEAR as the ability to command an inward turn. What is interesting is that when we look at some of NEAR’s previous behaviour, this pattern becomes even more apparent.
Previously NEAR was able to maintain its resistance for the briefest of moments, often just a single candle. This is not NEAR’s typical behaviour, and strongly suggests that it would be very easy for it to maintain its current level of resistance. Despite this easy access to overhanging supply, however, we see that NEAR repeatedly turns back inwards. When we look at the present, what we can see is that all the signs are there for an inside turn. The most obvious sign being that NEAR has now breached the 20 period moving average and has no support between it and EMA50.
Near Price Prediction: Concentrated Resistance at Stall
I. Resistance at stall
II. Inward turn with support from EMA50/20
III. 20 period moving average under attack from NEAR. Conclusion: NEAR will maintain its resistance for a very short period of time before turning back inwards towards EMA50/20 on the 20 period moving average. This relationship may not be seen again until the end of Phase 3, which may last another 8 to 10 months.
If NEAR can maintain resistance for a long period of time, will it start to turn upwards?
No. If NEAR maintains its current resistance, as long as it’s able to continue to do so, it will eventually move upwards. But it’s not going to move upwards just because it can maintain resistance. It will only move upwards when the market conditions are appropriate for an uptrend. And even then, until there is a clear upward trend in the price and RSI indicators, there is no reason why this uptrend should last longer than another upward-moving cycle.
Why did NEAR turn back in towards EMA50/20?
This happens when the trend is positive and the price has breached the 20 period moving average. When a trend is positive, it is moving upwards and when it’s going upwards, there are times when a trend will turn back in towards the support line, which we call EMA50. If a candle closes above EMA50/20 then that means it is not only continuing to move up but also that price has breached this support level so it’s now beginning to turn up. These are very strong indications of an ongoing uptrend.
How can we tell that NEAR will maintain this resistance at Stall?
By looking at the price action. When NEAR was making its way up, it maintained its resistance level through a series of closing lows. When we look at the last two candles, however, we see that once NEAR had broken down below EMA50/20, it turned around and came back up to this level again. There is also some support for both candle close and RSI on the 1H chart. If price flattens and there is no movement in either RSI or candle close, then we know that there is no reason for any meaningful uptrend – it will be a false pullback.
